Tuesday, March 13, 2018

What could trigger a US recession

"Cumulative, you could have enough effects to touch off a recession. Now that would be for the first time, a death by a thousand cuts."

Monday, February 26, 2018

On Donald Trump - Interview part 2

Gary Shilling talks to ThinkAdvisor on President Donald Trump and his effect on the people and stock market.

What are the chief positives of President Trump’s tax package?

The cuts, kind of, even up the playing field in the corporate area. They don’t really do much net-net in the individual area. They front-loaded them, with the idea of spurring the economy. But it was a political game — we’ve got an election coming up this fall. However, there was serious need in the corporate area for updating in a globalized world. We had a 35% tax rate, and now it’s 21%. Amazon and Microsoft and [other companies] had cash stashed overseas.

Why will the cuts have little effect on individuals?

There’s an effect in the next year or two because they’re front-loaded. But then that’s basically taken away in the succeeding years. So it may spur incomes in the next year or two, but that fades over time.

Will people start spending more?

Higher-end people don’t adjust their spending when their incomes or assets go up and down. But with more money in their hands, middle- and lower-income people tend to spend. So I think that whatever increases they get in income will probably go to rebuilding their savings, particularly baby boomers, who have been notoriously poor savers throughout their entire lifespan.

How much do you credit Trump for the stock market’s record-setting performance?

Some things that Trump has accomplished suggest that he has had a measurable impact on stocks. The most important one is deregulation. That’s his biggest accomplishment. Deregulation isn’t dramatic. [I mean], there’s no Rose Garden signing ceremony for deregulation. It’s a little of this, a little of that. It’s putting different people in charge. It’s either ignoring regulations that they want to avoid or changing them.

via www.thinkadvisor.com/2018/01/22/gary-shilling-famed-bubble-detector-urges-caution?slreturn=1518441127&page=3

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

The Fed is comprised of mostly academics

Globalization has helped some countries and hurt others. The US Federal Reserve seems not to understand some of its effects on its common citizens.

"The Fed is misreading reality for a whole host of reasons. One of the biggest is globalization. They’re very much in a domestic world and don’t realize the power of what globalization has done to manufacturing, how it’s decimated unions in this county, what it’s doing to the service areas, where companies are outsourcing legal and accounting work to India. The Fed is oblivious to all that."

"My view is that there aren’t many people there who have ever met a payroll — never had the responsibility for running a business and paying people. Almost all of them are academics or people who have spent their whole career in the regulatory area or in government agencies. "

via thinkadvisor

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Gary Shilling: India VS China economy

Gary Shilling praises India as having good long term prospects, even more so than China.

"One that we’ve been very optimistic about is India, though it’s better known today than it was six years ago, when we first got enthusiastic about it. I wrote a report back then that India was a better bet in the long run than China. It’s a long-term play and still has a lot to go.

It has a lot of advantages: It’s a democracy, albeit a messy one — there’s a lot of graft and corruption — but it’s a democracy. China is a top-down dictatorship and is becoming more so. The world is pretty much saturated with manufactured goods now; and as economies grow, a greater portion of spending is on services. India is much more into services — software and so on. They’ve got a knack for it. And India has large private corporations. In China, they’re basically state-controlled and very inefficient."