Slow economic growth will persist until excess financing is worked out. But at the rate that balance sheets are being normalized it may take longer than two years (from now) to complete the correction. Hence our 2 percent real GDP forecast for 2016 and 2017. After the age of Deleveraging is complete, we believe that today’s new technologies will drive rapid GDP growth of 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent.
China is really fading from the global scene as a prime mover. A lot of investors really thought China was independently growing and didn’t acknowledge the reality that its economy was still export led. China won’t disappear, but as far as being the center of attention on the global stage, that is probably over.
The international shock and awe resulting from globalization and the shift of manufacturing from North America and Europe to China as well as other emerging economies is essentially finished.