Monday, September 28, 2015

World heading towards Deflation

Almost every country is devaluing against the Dollar. It is a reflection of slow growth.............

[Watch the full video below]

Monday, September 14, 2015

More market sell offs could be ahead

Volatility -- the rate at which prices move up or down -- has leaped in many security markets recently. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's Financial Stress Index, whose 18 components include yields on junk and corporate bonds, an index of bond market volatility, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index, is almost at a four-year high.

I believe the restrictions on bank trading imposed by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, including the ban on banks' proprietary trading and increased capital requirements, are a key reason, at least in the U.S. Large banks and other financial institutions simply aren't carrying the big trading positions they once did, and therefore, liquidity in many markets has atrophied. 

Then there's China's stock-market nosedive and currency devaluation. They provided a wake-up call about China's slowing growth and the global effects on commodity prices, emerging markets and money flows. 

Volatility in U.S. markets may also be due in part to the delayed effects of the ending of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve late last year. Since stocks began to revive in March 2009, equities have been floating on a sea of Fed money with little connection to the slowly growing economy beneath -- something I dubbed "the Grand Disconnect." 

Then there's the shaky base of corporate earnings growth. With slower economic growth, sales gains have been slight. And business pricing power has been almost nonexistent, with minimal inflation and a strong dollar. So top-line revenue growth -- the foundation for profit gains -- has been largely missing. 

Resourceful American businesses have cut costs ruthlessly to make up for the lack of revenue growth. As a result, profits' share of national income leaped from the lows of the 2007-2009 recession. But profits' share has stalled over the last several years, reflecting the slowing of productivity growth. 

Also, stocks aren't cheap relative to earnings. The price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 index over the last year is 18.2, compared with the norm of 19.4 over the last 20 years. But the better measure is the cyclically adjusted ratio, developed by Robert Shiller, the Yale University economics professor, which uses real earnings over the preceding 10 years to iron out cyclical fluctuations. On that basis, the current price-to-earnings ratio of 25.84 is 55 percent above the long-run norm of 16.6. And since the norm has been about 16.6 almost since 1992, price-to-earnings should run below trend for years to come, assuming the 16.6 remains valid.

The past month's leap in volatility, especially for stocks, reminds me of the prelude to the Oct. 19, 1987, stock-market crash, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6 percent in one day and the S&P 500 fell 20.5 percent. The S&P 500 volatility in the 10 trading days before the crash was 1.8 percent, compared with the previous month's average of 0.8 percent. More recently, S&P 500 volatility in the 10 trading days prior to Sept. 4 was 1.9 percent, while the one-month daily percentage change from mid-July to mid-August was 0.5 percent.

So I have to ask: Is the current volatility forecasting big selloffs into inadequate liquidity, as happened in the weeks leading up to the 1987 crash? Beyond the volatile markets, there are other warning signs. Interestingly, computerized trading may also be helping to feed volatility, much as it did in 1987. 

Junk bonds, which become notoriously illiquid in times of stress, enjoyed huge popularity from 2008 until recently, as investors lusted for yield in an era of low interest rates on Treasuries. But recently, yields have jumped, as have spreads between Treasuries and junk bonds. Junk bond prices, led by energy issues, fell 5.7 percent from April through August, and investors are on track to withdraw money from junk bond mutual funds for the third year. Similarly, yields on investment-grade bonds have been rising, as have their spreads against Treasuries. 

Keep an eye on Treasuries. The night before the 1987 crash, 30-year bond prices leaped 12 points in the stampede to safety. Credit markets often give warnings ahead of major global economic problems and equity bear markets. That was certainly true in 2000 and 2008. 

The economic outlook is uncertain, but the recent leap in volatility in equities and other markets may be warning us of more big selloffs ahead.


Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Global recession could occur if oil price drops again

If oil prices take another dramatic slide, as I believe they will, who wins and who loses? And could plummeting oil prices sow the seeds of the next recession ?

Oil-importing countries are obvious winners from falling crude prices. That includes the U.S., where -- despite a surge in domestic production -- imports still account for nearly 50 percent of petroleum consumption. The net oil-importing countries of western Europe and Asia also benefit from falling crude prices. India and Egypt, which subsidize domestic energy use, will surely benefit. Some of that, however, will be offset because crude oil is priced in U.S. dollars, and those countries' currencies have grown weaker against the greenback.

The windfall for U.S. consumers is considerable, with average gasoline prices down 24 percent to $2.47 a gallon from $3.77 in June 2014. No doubt, prices will fall even more when the summer driving season ends after Labor Day.

Most forecasters believe consumers will spend the windfall, and thus boost the economy. But almost all of the savings from lower pump prices so far have been used to rebuild household assets and reduce debt. Consumers tend to increase their savings in tough times; they've been doing so during the six-year recovery, even as real wages and median household incomes remain flat.

Lower oil prices, however, could come with a downside. As they work their way through the system, deflation could follow. Already, 10 of the 34 largest economies in the world have seen year-over-year declines in consumer prices. The risk is that deflationary expectations could follow, encouraging consumers to withhold purchases in anticipation of even lower prices.

If that happens, excess capacity and inventories would build, forcing prices down more. When buyers' suspicions are confirmed, they further delay consumption, in a vicious downward cycle. The result is little if any economic growth, as deflation-prone Japan has seen over the last two decades.

The losers from declining oil prices obviously include producers and oil-services companies, especially those that are highly leveraged. U.S. shale-oil frackers are taking a hit, and yet they stubbornly refuse to leave the business. One reason is that well-drilling costs are also declining. Another is that oil prices are still above frackers' marginal costs, which encourages them to increase output to make up for falling revenue.

Employees in the U.S. oil- and gas-extraction industry make up just 0.14 percent of total payrolls, but they were paid an average of about $41 an hour in July -- almost twice what other U.S. workers are paid. Since late last year, jobs are down only 4 percent in the sector and weekly pay has declined just 3 percent. With another big leg down in oil prices, vacancy signs may soon appear in the once-booming North Dakota fracking fields.

Further drops in oil prices will add to the woes of African exporters Ghana, Angola and Nigeria. Oil exports finance 70 percent of Nigeria's budget. Ditto for economic basket case Venezuela, where the bolivar has collapsed from 103 per U.S. dollar in November to 701 on the black market. (The official rate remains a fanciful 6.29 to the greenback.) 

Russia depends heavily on oil exports to finance imports and government spending. With Western sanctions over Ukraine squeezing the economy and Russian banks unable to borrow abroad to service their foreign debts, another drop in oil prices could precipitate a rerun of the country's 1998 default. The ruble has dropped to 66 per dollar from 49 per dollar in May, inflation is running at a 16 percent annual rate, and the economy contracted by 4.6 percent in the second quarter versus a year earlier.

With no other meaningful source of foreign exchange, Russia no doubt will continue to produce and export oil even if prices fall below marginal costs. And who knows what President Vladimir Putin might do next to divert domestic attention from this miserable situation? According to Shakespeare, the dying King Henry advised his son, Prince Hal, to "busy giddy minds with foreign quarrels."

Energy stocks are already down substantially on oil price weakness, with stalwart Royal Dutch Shell off 35 percent over the past year. Expect more punishment for speculators and investors who hold oil and related securities if prices drop toward my $10- to $20-a-barrel target.

Persian Gulf stock markets have been hurt and will probably nosedive with further oil-price weakness, especially since they're dominated by retail investors who have used cheap credit to rack up sizable margin debt. The Saudi bourse was the region's top performer this year, partly in anticipation of its opening to foreigners in June. Still, it's down 10 percent for the year so far. Oil provides 90 percent of the Saudi government's revenue and 40 percent of gross domestic product.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has put off raising short-term interest rates until labor markets and inflation data are more to its liking, but it now seems to many that it will take action before the end of 2015. I believe the Fed will hold off on a rate hike until next year, at the earliest. But if it does move this year, and commodity prices tumble, China slumps and deflation sets in, it could soon wish it hadn't.

The combination of all these forces may be the shock that precipitates the next global recession.